Cepea, October 17th, 2023 – Brazilian agents focused on crop activities and monitoring the weather in the first fortnight of October. The harvest began to step up in the major wheat-producing states (Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná), but rains are still concerning growers.
Official estimates released by Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply) in the first half of the month pointed to lower productivity and output in Brazil. The crop currently being harvested is forecast to total 10.46 million tons, 3.3% lower than that estimated in September and 0.9% below the record set last season. The area allocated to wheat crops in Brazil is estimated to be 12.1% larger than that last season, at 3.46 million hectares, however, crops’ productivity is forecast at 3.02 tons/hectare, 3.6% lower than that estimated in September and 11.6% below that from 2022 (3.42 tons/hectare), according to Conab.
As for imports, Conab kept estimates stable, at five million tons (between August/23 and July/24). Wheat availability in Brazil is expected to be 2.2% lower than that reported in September, estimated at 16.2 million tons between Aug/23 and Jul/24, 2.6% higher than that last season.
Consumption is estimated by Conab to total 12.64 million tons, 2% higher than that estimated for the previous crop (Aug/22 – Jul/23). Exports estimates were kept at 2.6 million tons. Thus, by July/24, ending stocks would total 958.9 thousand tons, lower than that previously estimated but 29.5% higher than that last season.
BRAZILIAN CROPS – According to data from Conab, by October 7th, the wheat harvest had ended in Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás and Bahia States. In Minas Gerais, 99.6% had been harvested; in São Paulo, 75%; in Paraná, 69%; in Santa Catarina, 6%; and in Rio Grande do Sul, 3%.
Cepea surveys show that wheat prices faded in the wholesale market in the first week of October but reacted in the second week. Between October 6-13, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) dropped 3.5% in Rio Grande do Sul and 0.39% in Santa Catarina, but rose 0.37% in Paraná. On the other hand, in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values increased 6.14% in São Paulo, 2.52% in PR and 1.85% in Rio Grande do Sul, but remained stable in Santa Catarina.